Friday, October 26, 2007

Week 8: It's Nothing of the Sexual Nature, I Assure You

Hello America. I’ve missed you this week like the desert missed the rain. I’m sure you’ve noticed I’ve been somewhat of an apparition around these parts this week (which probably accounts for this being our single highest traffic week in the history of the site…or was that due to the deadspin link? You decide...), but I have been bonging workahol out of a traffic cone for the last two weeks. (Just ask me about it and I’ll bore you with the exact time I have arrived and left work every day this week like it’s Auschwitz or something.)

On a more serious note, we didn’t get any picks from TJ this week, which unfortunately is not due to work, but instead “play.” Tommy was arrested last night and is still in the drunk tank, from what I can gather. Apparently he stumbled out of the Dubliner around midnight and decided to catch some impromptu shuteye in the lobby fountain of the Cap Hill Hyatt down the street, where he subsequently proceeded to move his bowels and then perform the “ugly woman” dance…and some buzzkill decided to call the local constabulary. So, once Tommy finishes paying his debt to society, he’ll get back to picking the games.

Additionally, Jerry won’t be contributing this week either. He went up to St. Michael’s in Maryland for a quiet weekend away with the new girl he’s seeing. He seems legitimately smitten…and I think we’re all just really happy for him.

Yeah…neither of those is true…but what does it say about our friends that you found the TJ story far more believable than the Jerry tale? TJ and Jerome are both at weddings … somewhere…for some people I don’t know or care about.

So, you may have noticed that I’m 3-17-1 picking against the spread this year. It doesn’t just suck…it’s groundbreakingly bad. I had some thoughts about how to address it. There’s the popular “reverse picks” concept where I pick all the games and then go back and do the opposite. First off, it’s been done. Secondly, it’s gayer than a tennis helmet. I decided, instead, to do “man up” and in a roundabout way take the advice Leon gives Larry below:

So you know what? Fuck it. I’m picking all the games…AND the over/unders. 28 picks. “Geoff was here.” Step out the asshole…and leave that shit open so they know I was there.

Cleveland (- 3) @ ST LOUIS, O/U 44Why’s everyone focusing on how bad the Dolphins are? You could have at least seen that coming. A lot of people had the Rams winning that division...but they suck something fierce. In both fantasy league’s I’m in, Marc Bulger was picked before Tom Brady. Think about that… BROWNS and the OVER

CHICAGO -5 vs. Detroit O/U 43½
- The Lions are worse than you think they are…kind of like genital warts…right Rob? BEARS and the UNDER

CAROLINA - 6½ vs. Indianapolis O/U 44 – Chewbacca? Wookie? Endor? This does not make sense. COLTS and the OVER.

N.Y Giants -10 vs. MIAMI in Europe O/U 48½ - Glad we’re putting our best foot forward in exporting our game to the rest of the world. This game is gonna suck. PHINS cover and the UNDER.

TENNESSEE -7 vs. Oakland O/U 41½ - TITANS and the OVER.

Philadelphia -1 @ MINNESOTA O/U 39½
- If Andy Reid got his stomach stapled and went balder, he’d look remarkably like Brad Childress. And if we were drafting partners for beer pong, I wouldn’t select Tavaris Jackson. Ever. EAGLES and the OVER.

Pittsburgh -3 @CINCINNATI O/U 48½
- I could not have been more shocked at how poorly the Steelers played versus Denver last week. Shocked, I tell you. Like my parents always taught me, I’m taking the darker skinned black coach. STEELERS and the UNDER.

N.Y JETS -3 vs. Buffalo O/U 36½ - It was probably the funniest thing Beano Cook ever said—If this game was being played in my living room, I’d probably get up and to go see what was going on in the kitchen. JETS and the OVER.

TAMPA BAY -4 Jacksonville O/U 32 - Dr. Quinn Gray, Medicine Woman? Really? Seriously? BUCS and the UNDER…Waaaaaaay under.

New Orleans 2½ @ SAN FRANCISCO O/U 41 – No clue. How about SAINTS and the OVER?

NEW ENGLAND -16½ vs. Washington O/U 50 – Two weeks ago I told anyone who would listen (predominantly toll booth collectors and priests giving confession) that the Redskins covering against the Pats in this game was the lead pipe lock of the year. Well, as you may have noticed, I’m an impressive 0-5-1 ATS picking Redskins games this year. But fuck the haters. I’m sticking to my guns. The Redskins will lose this game because they can’t generate a pass rush and their offense is as impotent as Palek on Tell Me You Love Me. But their defense is still one of the league’s best. And good God, bet the kids college fund on the under. Through six games, the average combined total points per games in contest featuring the Skins this year is a paltry 35, with the high water mark being the 24-17 loss to NY. SKINS and the UNDER.

DENVER – 3 vs. Green Bay O/U 42 – I have nothing to say that is either relevant or true. BRONCOS and the OVER.

SAN DIEGO -11.5 vs. Houston O/U 45 – When was the last time the NFL had a week with two games being played at neutral sites? That’s the burning ques…oh…I mean Hot Topi…eh…no…speculation is spreading like wild….no….no… Let’s move on. TEXANS and the UNDER.


This organization is functioning as effectively as a cactus condom, both on the scoreboard and in the pre-game meetings. Since I’m not really sure which games I’m supposed to be prognosticating, I’m just picking three and letting it fly.

Washington (+16.5) @ New England (o/u 48) – All the tea leaves, coyote entrails, and mediocre football scribes point to a Redskins victory in this one. And by victory, we of course mean that the Skins will stay within two touchdowns of the Patriots. The Washington defense is the best Tom Brady has faced all season. New England’s bound to be looking ahead to next week’s tilt with the Colts. The Pats can’t keep treating the entire league like Schillinger did Beecher. And so on.

We’re not buying it. The Patriots are freaking cyborgs. Normal psychological failings don’t happen to them. The Colts aren’t even on their radar screen until they complete they crush their burgundy and gold enemies and hear the lamentations of their women. Patriots cover the number and the game goes way over the posted mark.

Buges has been prank calling Gino Capelletti all week, pretending to be Sam Huff. Fortunately for Buges, Capelletti’s nearly as clueless as he is and can’t figure out how to work the Caller ID machine.

Carolina (+6.5) @ Indianapolis – See above. The Colts won’t be looking ahead, either, and they face a much less sturdy opponent than do the Patriots. Indy was really impressive on both sides of the ball against Jacksonville, and David Carr isn’t much of a step up from Quinn Gray. Colts cover the spread and get a little hop in their step before getting mashed into the turf next weekend.

Houston (NL) @ San Diego? – How the heck do I know? I don’t even know where this game’s being played. Can I play a hand of Texas Hold ‘em instead? I’ll take the Santa Ana winds and give the points. And pray for the poor folks in SoCal.


Carolina (+6½) vs. Indianapolis
This line is a head-scratcher to me, but not nearly so much as it was when I looked at Danny Sheridan's odds on On that site, it said -- and still says -- that the Panthers are favored by 6.5. Can I get that bet from any bookie? I mean, with that kind of line, even I would have a shot of getting my picks right.

Obviously a 13-point swing makes it more reasonable, but still . . . here's what we know:
- The Colts are 6-0 and a close second to the Pats as best team in the league.
- The Panthers are 4-2, albeit against teams with a combined 13-28 record. The teams they beat are 5-22, the teams they lost to are 7-7.
- The Panthers are 0-2 at home.
- The Colts gain 80 more yards a game and allow 60 fewer than the Panthers.
- The Colts are averaging 9 more points a game.
- The Panthers are starting either David Carr or Vinny Testaverde at QB.
- It's not supposed to rain on Sunday in Charlotte.

- Mayflower Van Lines was so vilified for aiding the 1984 Irsay abandonment that the branch in Baltimore was run into the ground and like the Colts, they left town. (As my old Baltimorean bartender in DC once proudly told me.)

Doesn't this all reek of a 2-3 touchdown margin? Of course, "any given Sunday," blah blah blah. The only shot the Panthers have in this game is Indy looking ahead to the showdown a week later against NE. Even if they do, though, they win by a TD. Colts.

Washington (+16½) @ New England (O/U: 50)
Now this line is more like it. I guess New England is that much better than the Colts, or maybe Washington's 4-2 isn't as impressive as Carolina's, or perhaps home-field advantage is worth 10 points these days. The Skins face the same "only shot is them looking ahead" quandary, but it's a lot easier to get within 17 than 7. And the Redskins are a better team right now than the Panthers, especially on defense. And so I'm taking the Patriots. Huh?

Here's the deal. The Pats are a machine, not susceptible to emotional letdowns or "looking ahead." They may have a field day with the Washington OL. And they may be that much better than Indianapolis. (After all, the Mel Gibson vehicle "The Patriot" is immensely more powerful than the Dodge vehicle "The Colt.") And finally, my gut tells me that the Redskins may make
this game interesting, and I've been wrong for four or five weeks in a row. Gonna take a page from Geoff's reverse psychology. Patriots.

I also like the under. The Over.


You’ll have to excuse me this week as I’m a little out of sorts. You see, for the first time in 8 years I won’t be attending the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville. I’m more than a little bummed about this. Of course, I’ll be sure to make up for it by drinking myself into a stupor over each of the next couple of nights. The last time I missed the cocktail party I ended up challenging my friend Dave to a fight, losing my phone and getting kicked out of a cab (you know I was drunk if I called a cab) all before midnight on Saturday. I’m gonna try and knock out that trifecta by sundown this time around. Well, either that or I’m gonna find Vodka guy and take him up on those Vicodins he offered us last year. Keep our fingers crossed.

Jacksonville @ TAMPA BAY (NL): After completely fumbling away what should have been a win in Detroit, Tampa comes home to face a Jacksonville team who fell apart on Monday night once they lost David Garrard to injury early in the 1st quarter. Can you blame them? I’m pretty sure John Henderson was as surprised as me to find out that Quinn Gray was not only a real person, but also the Jaguars’ backup QB. While I’m sure Jaguars fans will complain about their offense not being at full strength without Garrard, lets be honest. That offense was shit on a stick anyway. Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew their whole philosophy revolves around throwing the ball up for their pack of enormous, overrated wide receivers. As an aside, how come nobody gives the Jacksonville management shit for drafting stiffs like Matt Jones and Reggie Williams in the 1st round? I don’t know. I’ll tell you what I do know though, my hangover is not easing up anytime soon. I guess I’ll listen to my pounding head and go with a McGriddle over the Egg McMuffin. Oh, and Tampa in a low scoring affair, 16-9.

Philadelphia @ MINNESOTA (-1.5) O/U: 38: Does anybody without a mustache care about this game? Yes. Those people who own Adrian Peterson in their fantasy leagues do. However, those people are going to end up awfully pissed off come Sunday when Brad Childress outfoxes his former mentor by using Peterson as a decoy and unleashing the talents of Tavaris Jackson on the unsuspecting (and increasingly porous) Eagles secondary. What’s that you say? Jackson couldn’t start on half the teams in the SEC? Yeah you’re right. If I was Brad Childress I’d just line up Peterson in the Wildcat package all day and force Philly to try and stop him 40 times. Can you honestly tell me that’s a worse strategy than having Tavaris Jackson launching passes downfield to the likes of Troy Williamson, Bobby Wade and Travis Taylor 25 times a game? Of course you can’t. That’s because you apply things like logic and reasoning when making decisions. Andy Reid and Brad Childress laugh at your simple, unmustachioed ways. Take the under.

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