Tournament Picks...kind of...

So, um yeah. I was really anticipating having a lot more time to dedicate to this NCAA Tournament Preview. It was never going to be an actual Tournament Preview as much as it was going to be a look at the first weekend of the tournament’s most intriguing matchups and storylines (to me). However, since I have had an abnormal amount of meetings this week (and because I’m not going to be working for the rest of the week) there’s still plenty of work to be done by yours truly before quitting time today. With that in mind, I present you the (slightly truncated) Things I Think I Think: NCAA Tournament Edition. (Yep, it's format plagarism, wanna fight about it?)



- There’s probably not a bigger contrast in terms of style between two evenly matched teams in this year’s first round than the Arizona-Purdue game. The contrast lies in not only the style of play, but also the overall cache of each University. For further support of this, one need only look at the rosters of these two teams. While Arizona is loaded with All-Americans, Purdue’s roster is stocked with guys who weren’t even recruited by most Big Ten schools. Of course, there’s a reason that these two are meeting up in an 8-9 game and that reason would be heart, or in Arizona’s case a lack thereof. On paper this game isn’t even close. Yet, as we all know, they don’t play the games on paper. I’m taking Purdue in this matchup because I think they’re tougher, smarter and overall a better team than Arizona’s collection of individuals. If you think I’m taking Purdue b/c I don’t want Florida to see Arizona in round 2, well, you’re smarter than I thought.

- I’m having trouble figuring out which upset I’m gonna pick in the Midwest between ODU-Butler and Maryland-Davidson (and, no I haven’t filled out my bracket yet). I’ve been leaning towards Davidson b/c there seems to be an awful lot of people picking ODU over Butler. I really want to pick Davidson actually. If for no other reason than to make myself feel smarter. However, I think I’m gonna end up taking ODU. Why? DJ Strawberry, that’s why. His defense on Davidson’s Stephen Curry will frustrate the freshman and probably force a few untimely turnovers that allow Maryland to get out and run enough to get themselves a victory.

- As much as I hate Notre Dame, they really won me over late in the Big East season (as well as in the Big East Tourney). In fact, I found myself eyeing them as a potential Final Four sleeper as I watched them play last week in NY. So it makes sense that they’d end up in the same bracket as the Gators. I’m still not sure what, exactly, I’m going to do with the Irish but I can assure you it won’t take them all the way to Atlanta. Listen, I like Mike Brey’s team but if I EVER chose ND over UF, I might have to stab myself in the eye with a paper clip.

- I keep hearing from people about how they’re excited about the Kentucky-Villanova game in round 1. Umm, why? Neither of these teams is that good and, as far as I can tell, they don’t present any intriguing one-on-one matchups. I’m just not sure what I’m missing here. Clearly, there’s something about this game that’s gotten people excited, other than the usual batch of lame “Pick the Wildcats” joke that gets beaten to death every other tournament or so. As far as I can tell, its nothing more than some generic excitement generated by two notable schools from power conference taking each other on. The fact that these two teams rarely play and are now facing off in the tournament is notable, no doubt. I just fail to see how this game is even amongst the most 5-10 interesting first round storylines.

- I’ve heard a few different reporters, anchors, etc, asking the “Why doesn’t Memphis get any respect?” question. Well, I’ve got an answer for you. The #2 seeded team in their conference tournament was…(I’ll let you guess for a second here)…UCF. That’s right the University of Central Florida, who wasn’t even a powerhouse in their former conference (The Trans American Athletic Conference) were the second best team in Conference USA this season. To summarize, once Memphis gets past the first round, they’ll be playing a team that’s better than anybody they faced during their entire conference season. Does the lack of overall respect make sense now?

Finally, I’ve compiled a list of upsets that I’m looking at and will decided upon this evening when I finish my bracket. I won’t pick all of these ( I do want to win a pool for the third consecutive year, you know) but I will pick 3 or 4. Each of them is listed below with some basic information on why I feel their’s some major upset potential brewing in these matchups.

- Duke-VCU: A lot of people are picking this upset, almost too many. In fact, the overwhelming amount of people picking VCU here is giving me pause. It’s starting to feel like this has reverse upset potential. However, I think that VCU’s guards are going to cause a lot of trouble for Greg Paulus and co. They possess the athleticism and scheme to force some turnovers and force Duke to play an up-and-down game against the smaller, quicker Rams. Normally, these upset picks fall flat because the mid-majors can’t contain the power conference schools on the interior. VCU isn’t very big inside, but Duke’s only real big man is Josh McRoberts and his lack of interior presence on offense could prove to be Duke’s undoing here.

- Nevada-Creighton: I’m not calling this game an upset special. I’m picking the winner of this game to upset Memphis in the next round. One problem: I can’t figure out who to pick here. Since I’m taking the winner into the Sweet 16, a correct pick here holds much more value than your average first round upset pick. I really want to take Nevada but I’m scared by their recent lack of success in the tourney as well as that of their star, Nick Fazekas. On the other hand, I feel like Creighton is probably the most underrated of all the mid-majors in this year’s tourney. They’re great defensively, which is typical. However, this year, they have a pretty potent offensive team as well as a senior leader who can take over a game in Nate Funk. I’m genuinely torn here and probably won’t make this pick until just before I turn in my bracket.

- UVA-Albany: TJ and I might be the only two guys I know who immediately thought upset when we saw this pairing. Albany is very good and very experienced. They’re also more athletic than your average America East entry. On top of that, they have a guard in Jamar Wilson who can match up with Virginia all over the floor. Albany is actually the more experienced tournament team in this matchup…by a wide margin. UVA’s chances aren’t helped any by the fact that their big men couldn’t combine to score 30 points against Charlottesville High. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on UVA to get a win here and I feel like Sean Singletary and JR Reynolds may press a little if things get tight late. Albany wins by at least 6 points. Book it.

- Tennessee-Long Beach State: I actually think Tennessee is very good and has some serious Elite Eight potential (they did take OSU to the wire in Columbus). However, a few things have me thinking upset here. First, UT got lucky against Winthrop in last year’s tourney. I mean, Chris Lofton hit a hell of a shot but he had to take 3 steps to do it. Second, I watched the Big West final on Saturday night and LBSU plays a style that will work well for them against the Vols. While the Vols’ press may force some turnovers it’s not going to force LBSU to play an unfamiliar style as they already play a very uptempo game. I think LBSU’s guards will play well against UT’s defensive pressure. Finally, nobody, and I mean nobody, has picked this as a potential 5-12 upset. That’s a red flag as far as I’m concerned. Still not 100% sure, but I’m thinking that we won’t be hearing “Rocky Top” deep into the weekend.

- Washington State-Oral Roberts: Another case of the mid-major being the more experienced tournament team. ORU has two seniors who’ve been starting since their freshman year in Caleb Green and Ken Tutt (who, does not have a condo made of stone-a, contrary to published reports). Furthermore, Washington State seems like they peaked a month or so ago. Plus, there this: God wants ORU to win. Seriously, Oral told me.

- USC-Arkansas: The shoulder chip game. Arkansas has heard all week about how they didn’t deserve to even be in the tournament and they’re coming in with something to prove. The “lack of respect” card is the most overplayed angle in sports, but there’s no denying that it’s a factor. Furthermore, I feel like Arkansas really started to come together late in the year and figured out how to play together. They gave Florida a good effort in the SEC Final but didn’t have any legs left after 4 games in 4 days. Also, I suffer from a debilitating east coast bias as evidenced by my last two picks. So there's that.

So that’s it. Of course, you might want to consider the title of this blog before you go off willy nilly filling out your brackets according to my theories, because, well you know. Now, If you’ll excuse me I’m off to enjoy the greatest weekend in sports.