Week 2: Mazeltov!

Happy unnamed Jewish Holiday(s?) to all my Jewish(ish) friend(Hi Aaron!). We went a not too embarrassing 8-6-4 ATS last week (and there are two extra games there due to three of us picking the Skins game each week). This week's effort is approaching 5,000 words...so you might wanna print this out and take it to the crapper...

We’ll start off this week with a new feature that I am unilaterally electing to name “This Week’s Lines That We Like So Much We Want to Take Them Back Behind the Middle School and Get Them Pregnant.” It’s pretty simple—in addition to our pithy picks sniglets, the six of us will get together every week and pick three to five games that we all really like (more than friends) ATS. Here are this week’s:

This Week’s Lines That We Like So Much We Want to Take Them Back Behind the Middle School and Get Them Pregnant aka Supreme Confidence Locks of the Week:

New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay – the Saints are on the road, but you have to go with them here to cover the three. Is Vegas really saying that on a neutral field, this would be a pick ‘em? Edit: Oh wait, no, that's not at all what Vegas is saying...they're saying on a neutral field it would be Saints by 6. But why would they play on a neutral field? That makes no sense...unless they met in the Super Bowl...like in that Broncos-Colts fictional Super Bowl I predicted a couple years back. Moving on...

Cincy (-6.5) over Cleveland – Usually you don’t look to a 6.5 point road dog to be one of your locks…but you also usually don’t see teams as God awful as the Browns. The guy who started at QB for them opening day (aka last week)? Yeah, he’s no longer with the franchise. Bet that’s never happened before.

On the second tier, most of us like the Eagles at home to cover the 7 against the Skins and Seattle to cover the 2.5 @ Arizona. Jerry has fallen deeply in like with Detroit over Minny and TJ is ring shopping with the Bears covering the 13 at KC. Let’s get ready to gamble…

And now, on with the picks.

TJ

Houston @ Carolina (-6.5) - Ah yes, the Panthers have been waiting years to get their revenge. You see, the Texans beat Carolina 14-10 way back in 2003 (the only time they've ever met, in fact) behind the "stellar" play of Tony Banks (wow) and Carolina coach John Fox has been waiting 4 years to beat "those queers from Harris County" (his words not mine, so take a deep breath, put down your pink Razr phone and go back to watching E! Fashion Emergency). For some odd reason (alcohol), I have adopted the Houston Texans as my 2007 Sleeper Team, and thus feel compelled to take them in Week 2, even though they are on the road and their Week 1 win over the Corpses of Kansas City revealed absolutely nothing (well, it revealed how awful KC is, but nothing else). Here's hoping Mario Williams scores again so we can listen to some asshat like Sean Salisbury tell us "You know, he's got more TDs that Bush...hahaha...Trey, look how funny and insightful I am...Trey?" Houston.

Gambling stat that makes me look like I know what I’m doing when I really don't have a clue:
The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Cleveland - The Hindenburg. Dukakis in '88. Zubaz. Fox's new show K-Ville (seriously, have you seen the commercial for this? This might be the first show ever to get canceled halfway through the first episode). Coverdale-Page. The film version of Bonfire of the Vanities. New Coke. Cop Rock. My brief foray into Kabuki Theater. Highlander II: The Quickening. Carrot Top. That's right, you can already add the 2007 Cleveland Browns to the above list of epic disasters. Go look at the Browns schedule and try to find me more than two wins...
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You done? Couldn't do it, could you? The spread could be 20 in this game and the Bengals could be starting this guy at QB and I'd still be taking Cincy. [Note to Swint: This is free money. Tell Moose and Rocco you want to put at least a grand on this one.] Expect Phil Savage to trade Derek Anderson on Tuesday to the Frankfurt Galaxy (do they even exist anymore?) and replace him on the roster with Brock Berlin. Bengals.

Gambling stat that makes me look like I know what I’m doing when I really don't have a clue:
The Bengals are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.

NY Jets @ Baltimore (-10) - It's Kyle Boller vs. Kellen Clemens for all the marbles. I believe these two faced each other once in college, in a 2002 PAC-10 battle (Boller playing for the overrated Jeff Tedford at Cal, Clemens donning a space age all green uni for Oregon), but the internet is not helping me find a box score to confirm this, so let's just move on. The Newark Star-Ledger is reporting Clemens will be the Jets QB in Week 2, replacing Chaz Sexington, who has the dreaded high-ankle sprain. Penis-head John Clayton says Steve McNair is also out this week, having re-injured a groin that I'm pretty sure has been bothering him since his days at Alcorn State. I'm sorry, but a Kyle Boller-led team being 10 point favorites? Even if I wasn't a Jets fan, that's a tough spread to swallow. And yes, I know the double murderer and his defensive mates will most likely feast on Kellen. It's going down like this: Clemens plays valiantly, outplaying the still jittery Boller, but the Jets lose the game on a late Ed Reed TD (fumble return, INT return, punt return...who knows with that guy). However, they do cover, and that's all you care about, isn't it you gambling fiends? Jets.

Gambling stat that makes me look like I know what I’m doing when I really don't have a clue:
The Jets are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Jerry

When you get assigned games with spreads of 7, 3, and 0, it pretty much means that Vegas has no idea what's going to happen. They threw up their hands, found the closest football number that separates the teams, and let the betting public think amongst themselves. Be prepared for the least insightful trio of predictions you'll see in a while. Truth is, I wouldn't touch any of these games, even if I had all of Geoff's "old credenza" money.

Packers @ Giants (pick'em) – Over on the Giants message board, people were trying to make themselves feel better about the Green Bay game by invoking the memory of Jeff Hostetler's 1990 run to the Super Bowl as a backup QB. I'd just like to think of Hostetler's mustache on Jared Lorenzen's face.

I have no idea what to make of this game, so I'll just discuss something Giants-related that's been confusing me recently. In 2000, Jim Fassel pushed his chips to the middle of the table and took over play-calling duties from Sean Payton. The Giants offensive production increased by about 50%. In 2006, Brian Billick took over play-calling duties from Jim Fassel. The Ravens offensive production increased by 50%. Also in 2006, Sean Payton took over the Saints play-calling duties and they had the #1 offense in the league. Try explaining that one, smart guy.

The feeling here is that Eli doesn't play and the Packers win a really boring game that turns on 3-5 really weird plays. All the while Favre and Lorezen would rather be shooting and eating deer. Packers

Colts (+7) @ Titans – I've spent the past 15 minutes trying to make up some jokes about Tony Dungy's best-selling book, but I can't find a bad word about it anywhere on the internet. Amazon.com has 41 out of 44 reviews as 5 stars, and the other 3 are 4 stars. I find this deeply disturbing. The internet – a place where you could probably find video of a horse screwing a physics student – has nothing bad to say about this best-selling book. No snarky bloggers. No religion-hating extremists. No anti-sap logic-mongers. No Patriots fans complaining that Belichick's book should've sold more copies. Nothing. I'm scared.

There are two ways this game could play out: 1) Colts aerial rout or 2) Tennessee plays one of those scrappy ball control games that frustrates Indy and its close in the 4^th quarter. I'll take the Colts because even in scenario 2, they could cover the spread. Colts.

San Francisco (+3) at St. Louis – Last week I had Panthers-Rams. This week it's the 49ers. I don't know what to say other than: these games are stupid. 49ers, Rams, Panthers, Cardinals, Packers. What's the difference? These teams are all the same 7 to 9 win crap boring mediocrities and when they get together, the outcome is nearly random. I mean, really, who the hell cares? We're an NFC-heavy blog – does anybody give a damn about this game or have any idea who's going to win? I sure as hell don't. All I want is for Jeff Wilkins to kick a lot of long field goals.

In honor of Geoff's post earlier this week, I'll be picking against St. Louis because of the massive hole that Orlando "Tubby" Pace leaves on the left side of the offensive line. It really is a huge loss and the Rams offense was markedly worse after Pace left the game on Sunday. 49ers.

Whit

Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-10) - The Falcons are somewhere between Bill Simmons' square peg/round hole insertion of them into his Ewing Theory (he shrewdly picked them as the 12th best team in the NFL this year) and the 24-3 ass-kickees at the foot of a mediocre Viking club. They stink. They stink bad. But here's the thing: oddsmakers are taking (10!) points away from a Jacksonville team that allowed 282 rushing yards to the powerhouse Titans while grinding out 72 of their own. At home. While mustering a mere 10 points. One week is one week, and anything can happen, but don't spit on the Falcons by giving a 10-point cushion to the so-so Jags and tell them it's raining. Jaguars 13, Falcons 7.

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-9.5) - In 1992, the New York Jets lost Dennis Byrd to a paralyzing vertebra injury in Week 13 against the Chiefs. The Jets would win only one of their four remaining contests to finish 4-12, but the one game they won was the week following the incident in Buffalo against the Super Bowl-bound Bills. Just a year earlier, Detroit Lions guard Mike Utley had suffered a similar spinal injury that paralyzed him. The Lions went into the Metrodome and throttled the Vikes a week later. (The late Darryl Stingley's injury happened in pre-season, otherwise there might be a similar follow-up.) The point? Teams band together and overachieve after something like this happens, at least for one glorious game. Can the beat-up Bills go into Heinz Field and knock off the Steelers? Now that'd be something special. More to the point, can they cover? You betcha. Steelers 24, Bills 16.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-7) - Did You Know??? Philadelphia was the capital of the United States from 1790 to 1800. The capital was moved to Washington when John Adams got sick of the local residents giving up on every president three months into his term, booing every session of Congress, and suggesting we let Mexico come in and take over. Already noting that the newly formed Library of Congress would be of little service to Philadelphia denizens (a cracked bell was high-minded culture to them), the last straw for Adams & company was when Vinneus from New Hope sent a Western Union telegram suggesting that Napoleon and or his own smallpox-laden mother would do a better job with the Presidency. Now . . . everyone pause for a second and think about what this country might be like if the move hadn't happened.

Now put your money on Vinneus' Eagles. 21-13.

Geoff

Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami – This will be a very telling game for both teams. The Dolphins offense looked slightly better than last year’s version against the Skins (Is that Cam Cam’s work, or just the upgrade from Cleo Lemon to Trent Green? And speaking of, ‘member that band Letters to Cleo? I miss them like crazy. I bet Whitney and Rob hated them because they never played the Birchmere and more than six people had heard of them. Moving on…) and the Cowboys offense looked like Hawaii, Texas Tech, BYU and Loyola Marymount combined against the Giants. So, is the Giants defense horrible, or are the Cowboys an offensive juggernaut? And, is the Dolphins offense still poopy, or is the Redskins defense back to being a force? My guess is that the Cowboys have a very good offense, and the Dolphins will have a mediocre offense this season (a major improvement). I think the Cowboys to again break the 35 point barrier but also give up way too much on the defensive side, in part due to injuries to Newman, Greg Ellis and Ferguson. They do enough to go 2-0. Cowboys, 38-27.

Jerry made an interesting point the other night—if Wade Phillips didn’t look like a mix between John Candy and Captain Kangaroo, he would probably be a much more well-respected coach. I mean, his defenses have always been solid and he’s over .500 as a head coach. But I, like everyone else, still think of him as a small town sheriff in some backwoods Texas town who repeatedly spills chili on his uniform and can’t seem to figure out who keeps knocking over all the mailboxes.

KC (+13) @ Chicago – As I once heard Steve Mariucci yell on the Niners sideline, “Holy wow!” 13 points? I had a brief inkling to pick the Chieves to cover here, but then I remembered watching the Chargers-Bears game and even with the injuries, I can’t really foresee a scenario in which the Chiefs get a first down against the Bears defense in this one. By the way, for those of us who watched Hard Knocks, it was nice to get a chance to see what Larry Johnson spent his month long holdout doing: Painting…poorly. Did anyone see that picture he was working on of Jim Brown? It looked like he was trying to draw the solar system or something. And how about Dwayne Bowe and Chris Sippio realizing they were cousins after being on the same team for over a week? This never happens to anyone I know. I mean, I found out after working here for a year that hot dog eating phenom Joey Chestnutt’s sister works in my building and I felt like I had had my head buried in the sand…but I’m pretty sure there aren’t any level one blood relatives here…and if there were, and I was introduced to them…I would know within seconds, let alone weeks, that we were “kin,” as they say in the South. My point? Bears, 24-7. (Defensive TD for KC on a SexyRexy INT/fumble/bedwetting)

Washington (+7) @ Philadelphia – I’m sticking to my guns on this one. This is a game the Redskins lose. Until further notice (and the Redskins should feel free to serve that notice at their earliest convenience) the Eagles just have a major mental advantage over the Skins—they know they will beat them and the Skins don’t think they can win. The Eagles have won eight of the last ten meetings, and the two wins the Skins have notched are “suspect” at best. Win #1 is the Sunday night game from ’05 where Terrell Owens had just been suspended. The game was at FedEx (I was there) and the Eagles were reeling from the sort of personality turmoil that is rare in sports but is commonplace when dealing with T.O. That game is a little suspect. Not this one though: The other W came in week 17 of that same year, when Mike McMahon started at QB for the Eagles (until he got benched late for Koy F’ing Detmer…dagger), Ryan Moats was at RB and half of their defense was injured or golfing…the Eagles were 6-9 and playing for nothing and the Skins were playing for their playoff lives for the first time since I was in high school…and it was still a nail-biter until Sean Taylor sealed it with a TD. I like the Eagles offense to find its stride, the Redskins offense to continue to struggle to score TDs and a final of 31-16 Eagles. And hey—Coach Williams…can I call you Gregggggggggg? Thanks. Could you do me a solid and start Shawn Springs this week? Here’s the thing: I think “skill level” should be at least part of the criteria for determining “starters.” Sound good? Tits. Ok, stay black.

The Redskins are going to lose this game, and that is a tragedy. But they will lose because they have no offense, they have no passing game…and God(ell) was watching.

Rob

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5) - Detroit! Hot! Sexy! Also, still run by Matt Millen. Minnesota. Solid. Boring. Solid. And more boring. Except for that nifty Peterson fellow. Vikings edge the number.

San Diego @ New England (-4) - The Belichick-era Patriots have been exceptional at either blocking out distractions or using them to their advantage, jujitsu-style. They’ve not ever had to handle one that directly impacted their coach as much as this week’s cheating conflagration, though. The Bolts would appear to have some real advantages in this one – in addition to the scandal engulfing the New England front office and coaching staff, there’s real anger in the San Diego locker room after the Pats’ field-stomping playoff win. All systems seem to point to a Charger upset…until you remember that it’s Belichick versus Turner. The Pats’ head man could actually tell Norv the play calls in advance and I’d still put my money on Brady and the boys. Patriots by 10.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-7) - I was distracted last week when my daughter started kindergarten – I have no earthly clue how Andy Reid can concentrate on his job right now. I’m can’t believe he green-lighted the early retirement gift package the Iggles’ special teams offered Brett Favre and the Packers in Week One. Meanwhile, the Skins ground out a 16-13 overtimer against Miami in their opener. Joe Bugel remains confused, but this time he’s trying to figure out what everyone’s got against heroines – he loves both Harriet Tubman and Wonder Woman.

I’m almost ready to believe in the Skins. Almost, but not quite. Philly covers.

Mark

Saints @ Bucs (+3.5) - Both of these teams lost last week by significant margins to teams who were recent Super Bowl participants and picked to win their respective divisions. So, this should be a close game, right? Umm, no. The Saints are good and the Bucs, well, let’s just say that that they should be happy they don’t play in the AFC. They’d undoubtedly be the worst team the entire conference. As it stands now, the Bucs may not even be the worst team in their own division. In other news, I’m starting to come around on the whole Mike Vick thing. He seems like a nice enough fellow and all. As for this game, I have a distinct feeling it’s going to look a whole lot more like the second meeting between these two teams last year (A blowout victory for N.O. featuring Saints receivers running open and free all over the secondary) then the first (A close game clinched by Reggie Bush’s first NFL TD, a punt return TD). To be honest, depending on the way tomorrow’s Florida-Tennessee game goes I may not even care if the Bucs even show up come Sunday afternoon. Saints 31- 10

Oakland @ Denver (-10) - I really enjoyed the player ranking column that Geoff and Jerry ran earlier this week. I was stuck in training at the time but managed to read it and decided to add a few guys I thought also deserved mention. Nnamdi Asomugha was one of these guys. He’s as a good a corner as there is in the NFL right now. You know who I never even thought to mention? Champ Bailey. Sure, he’s good. Just not nearly as good as his reputation would lead you to believe. I’m calling it right here, Daunte Culpepper beats Champ deep for 6 at least once on Sunday. Book it. When you’re swimming around in piles of cash like Scrooge McDuck on Monday morning, remember to send me a thank you card. Something like this would be nice.

Anyway, I’m feeling the Raiders covering here. I’m also feeling like my herpes is about to flair up. Tennessee week always does this to me. Broncos 24- Oakland 20

Seattle @ Arizona (+3) - Has anybody actually figured out who Matt Leinart hangs out with on the Cardinals? I guess maybe Deuce Lutui. He seems fun enough and he went to USC with Leinart so I could see that. However, we all know you can only hang out with fat, sweaty guys for so long before they begin to stink like old bacon left out in the sun and that doesn’t exactly attract the ladies. Well, ladies out of Tennessee that is. I guess I’m talking about this because I have a real hard time picturing Leinart chilling out with Boldin, Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James and because this game isn’t very intriguing. Patrick Kerney’s gonna earn some of that big signing bonus this weekend against the traditionally awful Cardinal O-Line. Will he be worth all that money? Not a chance. Will he earn half his sacks this season in two games against the Cardinals? You betcha. Take Seattle here and throw some extra money on Shaun Alexander scoring at least two TDs while you’re at it. Seattle 27- 13

Seriously...did anyone other than me read all that?